Core Tip: Fan Boyu, Vice President of TrendForce Research, said that continuing the weak trend in May, the TV panel quotations in June are still expected to drop by around 8%, and the prices will fall below the cash cost in an all-round way, and the monthly decline of IT panels will also be as high as 5 to 8%, and the pressure of loss in the third quarter also emerged.
Fan Boyu, vice president of TrendForce's research department, said that continuing the weak trend in May, the price of TV panels in June is still expected to drop by around 8%, and the price will fall below the cash cost. The monthly decline of IT panels is also as high as 5-8%. %, the pressure of loss in the third quarter also emerged. At present, it seems that the peak season in the third quarter is not prosperous, and the quarterly growth rate of TV panel shipments is only 3-4%. IT panel shipments are likely to decline. It is expected that the panel price trend in the third quarter will remain stable, but it will be difficult to rebound.
TV panels fell more than expected in May, and quotations in June remained weak. Fan Boyu said that the North American and European market sales performed poorly in the second quarter. TV and PC brand manufacturers have revised down their shipment estimates for this year, and have adjusted their inventories and placed revised orders in May and June. On the other hand, the supply side The limited production cut has caused the oversupply situation to intensify, and the panel decline has expanded. It is estimated that the decline in panel prices in June is similar to that in May. The price of TV panels fell by about 7-8% in June, the decline of display panels was also around 7%, and the decline of notebook panels was about 5-8%. Overall, the price of IT panels fell by more than 20% in Q2, and the price of TV panels also fell by nearly 20%.
Fan Boyu said that according to the current shipment estimates of panel manufacturers and downstream manufacturers, TV panel shipments in the third quarter only increased by 3-4% compared with the previous quarter, IT panels are even less prosperous in the peak season, and notebook panels are the third largest. The quarterly shipment forecast is only comparable to the second quarter, and display panel shipments are likely to decline by nearly 10%. In the third quarter, the momentum of pulling goods was weak, and it was difficult for panel prices to rebound. It is expected that the decline in panel prices will converge in July, and it may not be until September that prices will fully stop falling.
The price of TV panels has been falling for a year. In May, the small and medium-sized TV panels under 55 inches have already dropped the cash cost. In June, the price continued to fall. Total loss. The price of IT panels has fallen for more than half a year, and the cumulative decline in the first half of this year has also dropped by nearly 50%. It is expected that the price of IT panels will also drop in cash costs in the third quarter, and panel manufacturers may experience a single-quarter loss. Fan Boyu said that with the panel factory's financial report showing a deficit, in addition to adjusting the product mix, the panel factory is bound to expand production and reduce production. The trend of panel prices in the fourth quarter depends on the attitude of the panel factory to reduce production.
